False Favourite Finder — BETA

We scanned over 10,000 past race results to identify patterns commonly found in beaten favourites.

Today's favourites are compared against those warning signs, with potentially vulnerable runners flagged below. Prices are then tracked through the day to show whether the market supports or opposes the case.

Use this as a research tool to help spot possible lay candidates or races where extra caution may be needed.

Updated daily at 9am. Feedback: support@trackstrats.com

Racecards scanned35
Favourites flagged4
Generated2026-07-10 21:30

4:23 - Ascot - Flat - Class 3

Hoseki

Newmark EBF Fillies' Handicap (GBBPlus Race)

Opposition ConfidenceHighA/E 0.81 - 173 samples
Why flagged Similar favourites won 32.4% versus 40.0% expected from the market.
Exchange moveDrifted +5.2%Exchange 2.90 to 3.05. Supports the oppose case.
ResultWonSP 2.62
Morning exchange2.90Betfair Exchange
Current exchange3.05Betfair Exchange
Field7
Draw5
Age/Sex3/F
Headgearnone
GoingGood To Firm
William Haggas - 14d 12/56 (21%) Luke Morris
Female favourite 33.9% actual vs 40.1% expectedHigh-third draw 33.5% actual vs 38.5% expectedHandicap 30.3% actual vs 33.9% expectedPrice 2.0-2.99 37.2% actual vs 41.2% expected
  • handicap favourite, price 2.0-2.99, 6-8 runners, age 2-3, headgear no: 32.4% actual vs 40.0% expected (173 historical favourites, A/E 0.81)
Racecard context

Two wins in her last four starts, both in her latest two runs, point to decent recent form, with today's going already covered on a quick 13-day turnaround. A rating of 85 only has her fifth of eight, the fourth and third finishes before that a truer level to weigh up.

6:41 - Worcester - Hurdle - Class 2

Our Guide

Amodil Group Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)

Opposition ConfidenceMediumA/E 0.85 - 223 samples
Why flagged Similar favourites won 34.5% versus 40.7% expected from the market.
Exchange moveShortened -3.4%Exchange 2.90 to 2.80. Market support is a caution.
ResultLostSP 3.25
Morning exchange2.90Betfair Exchange
Current exchange2.80Betfair Exchange
Field7
Draw-
Age/Sex5/G
Headgearnone
GoingGood
Jamie Snowden - 14d 4/10 (40%) Gavin Sheehan
Handicap 30.3% actual vs 33.9% expectedPrice 2.0-2.99 37.2% actual vs 41.2% expected
  • handicap favourite, price 2.0-2.99, 6-8 runners, age 4-5, headgear no: 34.5% actual vs 40.7% expected (223 historical favourites, A/E 0.85)
Racecard context

Our Guide arrives in strong form, winning four of his last five starts, yet a rating of 121 leaves him only sixth of seven on these figures. He has already raced over today's trip and going, so that drop against his form is the main query.

7:35 - Chester - Flat - Class 4

Top Juggler

John Smith's Handicap

Opposition ConfidenceMediumA/E 0.85 - 223 samples
Why flagged Similar favourites won 34.5% versus 40.7% expected from the market.
Exchange moveDrifted +6.4%Exchange 2.96 to 3.15. Supports the oppose case.
ResultWonSP 2.62
Morning exchange2.96Betfair Exchange
Current exchange3.15Betfair Exchange
Field8
Draw2
Age/Sex4/G
Headgearnone
GoingGood
Seb Spencer - 14d 1/5 (20%) Dale Swift
Handicap 30.3% actual vs 33.9% expectedPrice 2.0-2.99 37.2% actual vs 41.2% expected
  • handicap favourite, price 2.0-2.99, 6-8 runners, age 4-5, headgear no: 34.5% actual vs 40.7% expected (223 historical favourites, A/E 0.85)
Racecard context

Consistent of late, runner-up last time out and third on two of the starts before that, rarely far away in a stretch of solid placed efforts. Effective over today's trip and going, rated 83 on our figures, though still yet to score in that sequence.

9:00 - Worcester - Hurdle - Class 5

Oneinthewell

CopyBet Overnight Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Hurdle

Opposition ConfidenceLowA/E 0.76 - 72 samples
Why flagged Similar favourites won 30.6% versus 40.2% expected from the market.
Exchange moveDrifted +2.9%Exchange 2.72 to 2.80. Supports the oppose case.
ResultLostSP 2.75
Morning exchange2.72Betfair Exchange
Current exchange2.80SmarketsSBK
Field10
Draw-
Age/Sex5/G
Headgearp
GoingGood
James Owen - 14d 7/37 (19%) Jonathan Burke
Headgear on 31.8% actual vs 35.8% expectedHandicap 30.3% actual vs 33.9% expectedPrice 2.0-2.99 37.2% actual vs 41.2% expected9-11 runners 31.0% actual vs 34.5% expected
  • handicap favourite, price 2.0-2.99, 9-11 runners, age 4-5, headgear yes: 30.6% actual vs 40.2% expected (72 historical favourites, A/E 0.76)
Racecard context

Oneinthewell rates a leading danger at 104, with a second last time out following back-to-back thirds, still without a win in his last five starts. He's freshly fit just 5 days on and has raced over today's going before, with solid recent form throughout.

Performance

False favourites identified17
False favourites strike rate77.3%22 settled from 23 flagged
Lay P&L+9.56 pts1pt lay at BSP